SEforALL Chilling Prospects 2026 flags 12 countries at the highest risk of heat-related mortality

In August 2026, the Sustainable Energy for All initiative (SEforALL) published a special edition of its annual Chilling Prospects report, focusing on heat-related mortality across Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis singles out 12 countries that rank simultaneously in the top 20 for current heat death rates and in the top 20 for projected mortality increases by 2050: Bahrain, Burkina Faso, Chad, Djibouti, Iraq, Kuwait, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan. Most of these nations are located in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa region.

A widening gap between income groups

The Lancet Countdown for Health and Climate Change estimates roughly 546,000 heat-related deaths per year worldwide [1]. SEforALL considers this figure an underestimate, noting that heat-related deaths are frequently underreported in the regions bearing the greatest toll. Looking ahead, the report warns that by 2050, people in lower-income countries are projected to die from extreme temperatures at 10 times the rate of those in higher-income countries. Data from the Climate Impact Lab supports this projection: in Sahel nations such as Burkina Faso and Niger, temperature-related mortality could rise by more than 60 deaths per 100,000 people by 2050 [2].

What the report recommends

Reducing heat mortality, the report argues, requires a multi-tiered approach that includes adapted heat action plans, early warning systems, and strengthened healthcare infrastructure.

About the report

Chilling Prospects has been published annually by SEforALL since 2018 and tracks global gaps in access to cooling. The 2026 special edition is supported by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, the Austrian Development Agency, and the Clean Cooling Collaborative as part of the Cooling for All initiative. Further details are available on SEforALL's website.

Sources

[1] Romanello M, Walawender M, Hsu S-C, et al. The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: climate change action offers a lifeline. The Lancet. 2025. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01919-1

[2] Grover-Kopec E., Carleton T., & Greenstone M. (2026, March 25). Human health: Measuring the impact of rising temperatures on mortality to target adaptation planning. Climate Impact Lab. https://impactlab.org/research/human-health-measuring-the-impact-of-rising-temperatures-on-mortality-to-target-adaptation-planning

[3] https://www.seforall.org/chilling-prospects-special-edition-data-story/global-heat-mortality-data