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U.S. Central AC and Heat Pump Shipments Surge 27.3% in September 2026, AHRI Reports
AHRI data shows U.S. shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps rose 27.3% year over year in September 2026, with central ACs leading at +40.9%. Year-to-date combined volumes reached 7.06 million units, up 7.9% from the same period in 2025.
The Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) published its monthly heating and cooling equipment shipment report on November 12, 2026, revealing a sharp 27.3% year-over-year increase in U.S. shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in September 2026. Total combined shipments reached 673,286 units, compared with 528,980 units in September 2025.
September breakdown by product
Central air conditioner shipments led the growth, rising 40.9% to 370,855 units (up from 263,291 a year earlier). Air-source heat pump shipments increased 13.8% to 302,431 units, up from 265,689 in September 2025.
Among capacity categories, the 33,000–38,900 BTU/h (approximately 9.7–11.4 kW) segment recorded 143,795 shipments in September, a 42.4% year-over-year gain. The 22,000–26,900 BTU/h (approximately 6.4–7.9 kW) category reached 134,335 units, up 29.4%.
Year-to-date cumulative figures
Over the first nine months of 2026, combined central AC and air-source heat pump shipments totaled 7,063,543 units, a 7.9% increase over the same period in 2025. Central air conditioner shipments grew 9.1% to 3,852,468 units, while air-source heat pump shipments rose 6.4% to 3,211,075 units.
Other equipment categories
September results for other product lines were mixed. Gas warm air furnace shipments declined 0.4% to 279,746 units. Residential gas storage water heater shipments fell 3.0%, and residential electric storage water heater shipments dropped 3.1%. In contrast, commercial electric storage water heater shipments increased 7.0% to 13,660 units.
Methodology
AHRI states that its statistics are aggregated from participating member companies and cover shipments to customers in the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, including both domestically manufactured and imported equipment. A shipment is recorded at the point when ownership of a unit is transferred. AHRI does not provide market forecasts or publicly available state-level shipment data.
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